On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a highly anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, aiming to convince him to continue U.S. support for Ukraine. However, the encounter did not go as the Ukrainian leader had hoped. Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly criticized Zelenskyy in front of TV cameras, accusing him of being "disrespectful" and rejecting their proposal for a ceasefire with Russia.
It is clear that Zelenskyy will not be returning to Washington during Trump’s presidency. It is also evident that U.S. pressure on Ukraine will intensify in the coming weeks and months, as Trump pushes Kyiv to make significant concessions to Russia in exchange for peace.
Even before the White House confrontation, the Trump administration had been questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and calling for Ukrainian presidential elections. However, holding rushed elections solely to oust the incumbent could lead to disastrous consequences for the country.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings were as low as 28%, with his party polling at just 11%. The invasion initially rallied Ukrainians behind the president, and his popularity soared to record highs. However, over the past two years, his approval ratings have steadily declined. Polls show that trust in Zelenskyy fell from 54% in April 2024 to 49% in January 2024—nowhere near the 90% he enjoyed in May 2022.
Several factors have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining popularity, including widespread corruption within his administration and growing war fatigue among the population.
The Ukrainian president, acutely aware of his vulnerability, has made it clear that he is uncomfortable with competition. The stakes are high for him, as losing a re-election bid could result in prosecution for corruption or retribution from his rivals. Polls already indicate that he would lose if elections were held immediately.
A formidable challenger has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until February 2024. Polls show that Zaluzhnyi, if he were to run, would defeat Zelenskyy. Public trust in the general stood at 72% in January. Although Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by Zelenskyy following Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in 2023, there are speculations that his popularity may have played a role in his removal. The general was subsequently appointed as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, a position he still holds.
So far, Zaluzhnyi has not declared any intention to run for president, but there is no guarantee he won’t change his mind. If he chooses not to run, other military figures, such as Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, could step in. Budanov enjoys a public trust rating of 62%, though he recently disappeared from public view after a year of high-profile media appearances. Rumors suggest that Zelenskyy’s office planned to remove him, leading to his sudden retreat. However, he may re-emerge once the campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk could also become a wildcard contender. In a country where a former comedian became president, a successful athlete is not an unlikely candidate. Although Usyk has not publicly expressed political ambitions, he has started appearing in polls, with a current rating of 60%.
Another potential rival is former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval ratings but remains a dangerous adversary for Zelenskyy. Since 2019, over 130 criminal cases have been launched against him, including accusations of treason for approving a coal-supplying scheme from the Russian-occupied Donbas region. Poroshenko is an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and has not hidden his political ambitions. He has traveled to the U.S. and met with Trump’s team. In February, he was barred from attending the Munich Security Conference and now faces state-imposed sanctions, including an asset freeze, on “national security grounds.” The message of these sanctions is clear: Poroshenko will be eliminated from the presidential race before it even begins. Amid this perceived political persecution, other potential challengers have been too afraid to come forward.
Concerns have grown over Zelenskyy’s treatment of opposition figures, but so far, no strong public rebuke has come from his allies. After the White House confrontation, European leaders expressed support for Zelenskyy, giving him a temporary boost at home. However, it remains unclear how long this support will last.
Beyond the bitter political rivalries and retaliations, the Ukrainian political scene is also marked by deep societal divisions. The war has intensified emotions, splitting the country in two and creating a volatile situation. Ultranationalists hold significant influence among certain segments of the population and are empowered as active participants in the war. On the other hand, a portion of society remains pro-Russian and opposes the continuation of the conflict.
If an election is imposed from abroad amid this volatility, the consequences could be more catastrophic than Russia’s invasion or the loss of Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. Not only could a third of the population be unable to vote, but the legitimacy of the election itself could be called into question.
The real threat is that the vote could trigger widespread conflict even before any ballots are cast. An incumbent fearing defeat and political rivals desperate to regain relevance may exploit societal divisions. Military and security agencies could be forced to intervene, creating a potentially explosive situation.
While presidential elections can dangerously polarize societies at peace, as seen in the United States, they could have far worse consequences during wartime. A rushed election in Ukraine, driven by the political agendas of a foreign power, is a recipe for disaster. Elections should only be held once a durable ceasefire is in place, allowing all Ukrainians to vote without fear of polarization or conflict.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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