Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah gathered thousands of its supporters for the funeral of its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in September.
The funeral, held on February 23, was an opportunity for the Lebanese group to send a clear message: despite the losses it has suffered in recent months, Hezbollah remains strong and should not be underestimated.
However, analysts told Al Jazeera that this display of strength does not compensate for the impact of Israel’s war against Hezbollah, which has resulted in the deaths of much of the group’s top leadership and the reported destruction of a significant portion of its military arsenal.
When a ceasefire was finally announced on November 27, Hezbollah was left battered and exhausted.
The ceasefire stipulated that Hezbollah would retreat north of the Litani River and away from Lebanon’s border with Israel, while Israeli forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon. A newly empowered Lebanese military would then take control of the south.
Days later, Hezbollah lost one of its most crucial allies, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, which fell in a rapid opposition offensive.
Hezbollah now finds itself at a crossroads.
Hezbollah Weakened
“Hezbollah is in a difficult position,” said Imad Salamey, a senior Middle East policy adviser and associate professor of political science and international affairs at Lebanese American University. He added that the group is “facing its weakest moment in decades.”
Before September, Hezbollah was the most influential political actor in Lebanon and reportedly one of the world’s most heavily armed non-state actors. Formed to repel an Israeli invasion in the 1980s, the group withstood a major confrontation with Israel in 2006 and has since built up its arsenal and manpower.
Hezbollah has often been described as a “state within a state” and provides key services to its predominantly Shia Muslim supporters – a community historically marginalized by the Lebanese state.
A day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel and Israel’s launch of a genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023, Hezbollah entered the conflict, engaging Israel along the border to pressure it to stop attacking Gaza. This intervention was widely anticipated, given Hezbollah’s long-standing support for Palestine and opposition to Israel.
The conflict escalated in September when Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in attacks blamed on Israel. Israel also launched a day of airstrikes across Lebanon on September 23, killing at least 558 people, mostly civilians. The attacks continued, and four days later, Nasrallah was killed. Many of Hezbollah’s military and religious leaders have also been killed since, including Nasrallah’s successor, Hashem Safieddine, in early October.
Israel destroyed infrastructure and homes across Lebanon, targeting areas where Shia Muslims – Hezbollah’s support base – live, such as southern and eastern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. In October, Israel invaded Lebanon, devastating the south and wiping out entire villages.
Hezbollah was left militarily weakened and unable to fight back against Israel as it once did.
“[New Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim] Qassem has inherited a weaker Hezbollah from his predecessor Nasrallah, and it will be interesting to see if he can navigate as effectively given that so much of Nasrallah’s success was based on the party’s ability to project power,” said Elia Ayoub, a Lebanese researcher and author of the Hauntologies newsletter.
“Whether or not they decide to adopt a completely different methodology is what we’ll see in the coming months.”
A New Political System and Leveraging Anger
Hezbollah’s strength has also been rooted in the support it receives from Iran, both materially through Syria and financially, which has enabled it to run social support systems and maintain political representation and influence.
However, as international attention turned to Lebanon after the ceasefire, its parliament was encouraged to select a new president and prime minister in early January, ending two years of government paralysis.
For the first time since 2008, Hezbollah and its sister Shia party, Amal, were unable to nominate every Shia granted a ministerial portfolio in the new cabinet.
“Hezbollah no longer has the financial means, open Iranian backing, or clear military options to resist these changes,” Salamey said.
To make the best of the situation, Hezbollah has tried to leverage what it can, according to Karim Safieddine, a Lebanese political writer and doctoral student in sociology at the University of Pittsburgh.
“Hezbollah’s goal today is multifold,” Safieddine said. “[They want to] develop the resentment of the Shia community to consolidate control over it, navigate their extreme financial challenges – using international support to the government is one way but also finding credit – and continue to justify holding arms in the name of state weakness and continued Israeli violations.”
While many displaced Lebanese began returning to the south after the ceasefire, Israel used the cessation of Hezbollah attacks to continue occupying many villages and enter others for the first time. The Lebanese government accused Israel of violating the ceasefire terms by not withdrawing from southern Lebanon and continuing its attacks on people and villages.
On February 18, Israel announced it would continue occupying at least five key points in Lebanon. However, the Lebanese army – not Hezbollah – is now responsible for security in the south. Some have criticized the army for failing to liberate the land and properly protect the people of the south.
Cash-Strapped
Hezbollah has promised to pay for reconstruction and has already begun assessing damage and distributing funds, according to residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs and villagers in southern Lebanon.
The World Bank estimated $3.4 billion in damage to structures, with nearly 100,000 housing units across the country damaged or destroyed.
This extensive damage is beyond Hezbollah’s reduced capabilities.
Analysts said Hezbollah now recognizes it needs to allow the government to progress to attract crucial foreign funding to help rebuild the widespread destruction caused by Israel’s attacks.
Wait-and-See Game
Hezbollah supported the majority choice for president, military chief Joseph Aoun, and while it did not support Nawaf Salam for prime minister or agree with every cabinet seat, its MPs recently gave Salam’s new government a vote of confidence.
“Sheikh Naim Qassem stressed… the policy of extending a hand to the new era and giving the government a chance to play its role in protecting the borders, liberating the occupied Lebanese territories, and rebuilding,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst believed to be close to Hezbollah.
“Of course, the party’s support base has comments on the performance of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, but that does not change the party’s positive position.”
Some Hezbollah-affiliated local media claim external pressure and support for the government have isolated Hezbollah.
Ibrahim al-Amine, editor-in-chief of Al Akhbar newspaper, wrote in a recent editorial that through Salam, “the Americans and Saudis want Hezbollah not to be directly represented in the government” and “to break the monopoly of the Amal and Hezbollah duo over [Shia] representation in the government.”
“The party’s criticism of the government stems from its frustration,” Salamey said. “Hezbollah no longer has the financial means, open Iranian backing, or clear military options to resist these changes.”
“For now, Hezbollah has little choice but to adapt to this disadvantageous situation and wait for conditions to shift in its favor,” Salamey added.
Even with Hezbollah in a weakened position relative to the state, their grassroots support remains intact.
“For… the core supporters, I think this is going to make them more attached to Hezbollah because they will view this as part of a wider conspiracy,” said Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem. “This could fuel them to be even more aggressive in reflecting their point of view.”
He added that other members of the Shia community, who have historically relied on Hezbollah for social services, may take a wait-and-see approach toward the new government to determine if it can fill the void left by Hezbollah’s weakening.
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