On February 18, 2022, six days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, then-United States President Joe Biden stated he was “convinced” that Moscow had decided to invade Ukraine. When questioned about his certainty, Biden replied, “We have a significant intelligence capability.”
At the time, Ukraine’s government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy doubted Biden’s prediction, insisting that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Biden was correct, Ukraine was wrong.
Since the war began, the United States has, in addition to providing billions of dollars in advanced weaponry, shared intelligence with Ukraine using its vast spying capabilities, bolstering Kyiv’s defense and aiding in its attacks against Russian forces.
That support came to an abrupt stop on Wednesday when U.S. officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had ordered the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. This move came two days after the U.S. halted military aid to Ukraine, reflecting the deteriorating relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy.
So just how much has the U.S. assisted Ukraine with intelligence during the war? How will the absence of U.S. intelligence impact Ukraine? And can Europe step in to fill the void?
Here’s what we know so far.
What happened?
U.S. officials have confirmed that Washington has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This follows reports from multiple U.S. media outlets that Trump halted military aid to Kyiv, citing unnamed U.S. officials.
John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), confirmed the intelligence pause in an interview with Fox Business broadcast on Wednesday.
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also confirmed the pause to reporters on the same day. “We have taken a step back and are pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship,” said Waltz. He added that he has been having “good talks” on negotiations with Ukraine.
U.S. officials indicated that the pause on military aid and intelligence sharing could be lifted if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs between Trump and Zelenskyy.
“I think we’re going to see movement in very short order,” Waltz said.
Why did the U.S. cut intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
Reporting from the White House, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher stated that cutting intelligence sharing was “just a tool to try and get Ukraine back to the table.”
Fisher explained: “They [the U.S.] also talked about stopping military aid to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians admit would hit their war efforts.”
“Clearly, just the threat of those things has worked. So when you hear from the national security adviser saying things could be resumed in short order, it seems to suggest that any impact on Ukraine would be limited, to say the least, as long as peace talks certainly seem to be on the horizon sooner rather than later.”
How did we get here?
Trump’s military pause, and the latest halt in intelligence sharing, followed escalating tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy in recent weeks.
Trump shifted U.S. policy on Ukraine, opening direct discussions with Moscow to end the war. In February, American and Russian officials held talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, excluding Ukraine and its European allies.
In the days that followed, Trump and Zelenskyy engaged in a verbal spat: Trump described Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections,” questioning his approval ratings. Zelenskyy retaliated, stating Trump was living in a “disinformation space.”
On February 28, Zelenskyy met Trump, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Oval Office in the White House. Trump and Vance criticized Zelenskyy for not being sufficiently grateful for the military assistance Washington provides Kyiv. Days later, on Monday, Trump suspended military aid.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy’s tone became conciliatory, as he expressed readiness to return to negotiations. “We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence,” he wrote in a post on X.
How has the U.S. supported Ukraine with intelligence so far?
Even before the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, the U.S. provided Ukraine with significant intelligence.
While specific details have not been publicly disclosed, multiple reports, officials, and leaks point to two key areas where U.S. intelligence has been critical.
The intelligence—primarily a combination of satellite imagery and signals—has allowed Ukrainian forces to prepare for incoming Russian strikes and track Russian troop movements and base positions. This has enabled Ukrainian forces to deploy missiles, including long-range projectiles, against Russian targets, including strikes inside Russian territory using long-range weapons like ATACMS and HIMARS provided by Ukraine’s Western allies.
“The United States can provide Ukraine the coordinates or satellite imagery of where the Russian logistical centres are located, and then Ukraine can use that information to destroy them,” Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
“You need that information from the Ukrainian perspective in order to target hostile objectives like ammunition depots and logistical hubs.”
But there’s more.
In February 2024, a New York Times investigation revealed that after a Ukrainian military command centre was destroyed following Russia’s full-scale invasion, it was replaced with an underground bunker. In this bunker, Ukrainian soldiers track Russian spy satellites and intercept Russian military communications. The base is almost fully financed and partly equipped by the CIA, the Times reported.
The report also noted that there are multiple CIA-supported spy bases in Ukraine, including 12 secret locations along the Russian border.
Additionally, around 2016, the CIA began training an elite Ukrainian commando force, known as Unit 2245, which captured Russian drones and communications equipment. These devices were reverse-engineered by the CIA to decode Moscow’s encryption. One of the trained officers from Unit 2245, Kyrylo Budanov, is now Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence.
Will the intelligence pause affect Ukraine’s fighting abilities?
It already has.
Reporting from Ukraine, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford spoke with a Ukrainian commander near the front line.
“He said that his unit and many like him along the 1,300km [808 miles] frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine relied on American intelligence for around 90 percent of their intelligence work,” Stratford said. “He said they received no help today and that the Americans seem to have turned that system off.”
Ukraine uses U.S. intelligence for various purposes, Stratford noted, including operating its Patriot missile system, which is critical for intercepting incoming Russian ballistic missiles.
Can Europe help fill Ukraine’s intelligence blindspot?
Partially.
European nations possess spy satellites that can provide some imagery, but it’s unclear whether they can offer the specific intelligence Ukraine requires.
Ukraine also has two commercially acquired spy satellites, built by Finnish company ICEYE. One was purchased by a nonprofit, the other provided by the German government and weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
However, experts say it’s unlikely that Ukraine or Europe will be able to fully compensate for the loss of U.S. intelligence.
“Europe does not have the intelligence capabilities that Ukraine receives from the U.S.,” said Miron, adding that
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