South Sudan’s President, Salva Kiir, has ordered a series of high-level arrests and dismissals of political and military figures this week as tensions between him and Vice President Riek Machar—a key opposition leader—threaten to escalate to a breaking point.
Since Tuesday, soldiers from the South Sudanese army have surrounded Machar’s home in Juba, according to members of the vice president’s party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO). Kiir leads the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Conflict between the two leaders erupted into a civil war in 2013, destabilizing the young nation. Although a peace agreement in 2018 brought calm, analysts warn that renewed tensions between Kiir and Machar now threaten this fragile accord. These tensions follow an outbreak of violence in the northeastern state of Upper Nile, reportedly fueled by rumors of a planned forced disarmament of local groups.
South Sudan, Africa’s youngest country, gained independence from Sudan in 2011. Despite its oil wealth, the nation of 11 million people remains Africa’s second-poorest country, grappling with a humanitarian crisis driven by conflict and poverty.
Here’s what we know about the recent rise in tensions:
What is the history of conflict in South Sudan?
Shortly after independence in 2011, the country’s independence movement, led by the SPLM, began to fracture. Political tensions between SPLM factions, exacerbated by ethnic divisions, came to the forefront. The dominance of the Dinka ethnic group has historically been a source of conflict with other groups.
In 2013, South Sudan plunged into civil war when Kiir, a Dinka, fired Machar as vice president following escalating disputes. Machar, from the Nuer ethnic group—South Sudan’s second-largest—challenged this move, calling Kiir a dictator, and established the rebel movement SPLM/IO, which fought against Kiir’s government forces.
How did the 2018 peace process unfold?
After five years of war, which displaced over a million people and killed more than 400,000, the warring factions agreed to talks alongside other groups that had joined the conflict. They ultimately signed the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) after several failed peace frameworks.
Facilitated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the peace deal aimed to unify the factions’ armies, draft a new constitution, prepare for elections, conduct a census, and disarm armed groups. However, none of these reforms has been implemented, and sporadic violence by local or ethnic armed groups continues.
In May 2025, some holdout groups were invited to new peace talks under Kenya’s Tumaini Peace Initiative, which called for renouncing violence. However, Machar’s SPLM/IO opposed the initiative, fearing it could undermine terms of the 2018 agreement.
Why have tensions risen again?
Tensions between Kiir and Machar reignited in February after clashes erupted in Nasir County, Upper Nile, between the Sudanese armed forces and an “armed youth militia” identified by Human Rights Watch (HRW). Rumors of a forced disarmament plan by government troops reportedly sparked concern among local groups, though the exact cause of the fighting remains unclear.
HRW reported that the South Sudanese army attacked positions of the unnamed armed youth group, leading to deadly confrontations. At least five civilians were killed, and a UN peacekeeper was injured. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) noted the use of heavy weaponry and reported clashes in Western Equatoria State.
South Sudan’s Information Minister, Michael Makuei Lueth, blamed the White Army, a Nuer armed group in Upper Nile, for attacking army garrisons in Nasir County. Lueth claimed the group was linked to the SPLM/IO and assured that the government was addressing the situation.
Who has been arrested or fired?
This week, Kiir dismissed or ordered the arrests of several high-profile politicians and military officials linked to Machar:
- On Tuesday, General Gabriel Duop Lam, a Machar ally and deputy army chief, was arrested. Machar’s home was also surrounded, effectively placing him under house arrest.
- On Wednesday, Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, a Machar supporter, was arrested along with his bodyguards and family members.
- On Thursday, soldiers detained Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuol after storming his office. He was released early Friday.
- On Friday, Kiir fired Monica Achol Abel, South Sudan’s ambassador to Kenya.
SPLM/IO spokesman Pal Mai Deng condemned Kiir’s actions, stating they “eroded trust and confidence” in the peace agreement and put the entire accord at risk.
Kenyan President William Ruto, leading the Tumaini peace process, acknowledged the escalating tensions and urged both leaders to engage in dialogue. IGAD representatives in Juba expressed alarm over the violence, warning it
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