Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces out of most of the territory they controlled in the Russian region of Kursk over the past week, raising questions about whether a weeklong U.S. intelligence cutoff materially aided the Russian counterattack.
The U.S. announced it had restored intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine on Tuesday night, following Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire plan discussed during a nine-and-a-half-hour meeting in Riyadh.
Russian efforts to recapture Kursk intensified on March 6, one day after the White House halted military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine.
According to Ukraine’s general staff, Russian forces launched 32 attacks in Kursk.
Russian military reporters indicated that Russia had prioritized this front, moving some of its best drone operators there and deploying electronic warfare to counter Ukrainian drone attacks.
The intensity of the effort became clearer on Friday, March 7, when Russian forces attacked Ukrainian border areas in Sumy for the first time since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022. The goal was to encircle Ukrainian forces in Kursk from the south and cut off their supply lines.
On Saturday, Russian forces captured several settlements north of Sudzha, the main Ukrainian stronghold in Kursk, and began shelling Sudzha itself. One operation involved Russian soldiers infiltrating the industrial zone by crawling inside a gas pipeline.
The UK’s Daily Telegraph reported that Ukraine was considering a withdrawal to avoid encirclement, but Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii stated on Monday, “There is no threat of encirclement of Ukrainian units in the Kursk region.”
However, he did send reinforcements of drones and electronic warfare units.
By Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry announced it had recaptured more than 100 square kilometers (40 square miles) in Kursk, including a dozen settlements.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told media on Wednesday that Sudzha had been liberated.
“The data from our military shows that our troops have been successfully progressing in the Kursk region as they liberate those areas that have been controlled by [Ukrainian] militants,” he said.
Later on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk for the first time in months, and a day later, the Kremlin claimed Moscow’s operation in Kursk was in its final stage.
Ukraine caught Russia off-guard with its counter-invasion in August last year, leveraging a single division of 11,000 soldiers to pin down an estimated 78,000 Russian troops. This slowed Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine, embarrassed Putin, and reportedly forced him to seek the help of 12,000 North Korean mercenaries last November.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, assessed that Russian forces had managed to recapture 655 square kilometers (250 square miles) by last month—more than half the Kursk territory Ukraine had held at the height of its operation.
Ukraine launched surprise offensives in early January and February to consolidate its positions, highlighting the strategic importance it placed on Kursk as a key defensive front.
Ukrainian military analyst Petro Chernyk remarked, “Putin gave a firm order to kick our group out of there by May 9, and if this does not happen, then for him it will really be a very serious ideological defeat,” referring to the anniversary of the Soviet capture of Berlin in 1945. Ukraine’s incursion into Russian soil was the first since World War II.
A Ukrainian government source told Time magazine that the U.S. intelligence cutoff had been critical to the Russian advance, as Ukraine was unable to detect Russian bomber and fighter jet takeoffs or use U.S. intelligence to set targeting coordinates for its most precise weapons.
After then-U.S. President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made ATACMS rockets to strike deep inside Russia last November, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called the move “direct involvement of the U.S. and its satellites.”
Europe to the Rescue?
European nations scrambled to find alternatives to U.S. government intelligence and the Starlink satellite system, which Ukrainian forces use for communication and coordinating counter-battery fire.
Four satellite operators in France, Spain, the UK, and Luxembourg told the Financial Times on Friday they were offering services to replace Starlink.
Maxar Technologies, a commercial satellite imaging company, said European governments were able to pass on its images to Ukraine even though the U.S. had stopped doing so.
Europe also attempted to accelerate weapons deliveries to prevent Ukraine from experiencing setbacks similar to those of early 2024, when U.S. military aid was suspended for six months.
On Saturday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with representatives from eight Nordic and Baltic countries—Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania—to coordinate weapons deliveries.
“We are waiting for important decisions that will help Ukraine strengthen its defense capabilities,” he said.
Ukraine was in talks with Poland and Lithuania to increase joint production of weapons and ammunition.
Umerov signed two key private sector agreements—one with Germany’s Diehl Defence, which manufactures the IRIS-T air defense system, and one with Britain’s Anduril for advanced roving munitions drones funded by the International Fund for Ukraine.
Germany, which has provided 37 billion euros ($40 billion) in military and financial aid under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, announced on March 6 that it would increase its defense spending by up to 1 trillion euros ($1.09 trillion) under an expected coalition between the Christian Democrats and Scholz’s Social Democrats. Polls indicated that three-quarters of Germans supported this.
Ukraine has also been rapidly expanding its domestic defense industrial base and now supplies 40 percent of its own weapons.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry stated it would triple its purchase of domestically made first-person view (FPV) drones this year.
“The capabilities of the domestic defense industry in 2025 amount to approximately 4.5 million FPV drones, and the Ministry of Defense plans to purchase them all,” said Gleb Kanevsky, head of procurement. These figures did not include long-range drones used to strike deep inside Russia.
Deep Strikes Inside Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine continued its deep strikes inside Russia last week, despite the U.S. intelligence cutoff.
Ukraine said a massive drone operation successfully struck Moscow and the Diaghilev air force base in Ryazan on Tuesday. State wire service RIA Novosti reported that 337 drones were used, with 91 over Moscow. Russian authorities reported three deaths and 18 injuries.
Ukraine’s general staff claimed they struck the Ryazan refinery on Sunday, which produces jet fuel. The following night, they struck the Novokuybyshev refinery in the Samara region, which reportedly fuels Russia’s northern military grouping. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, said the plant was one of the 10 largest in Russia.
Kovalenko also stated that Ukrainian forces had struck the NLMK metallurgical plant in Novolipetsk, Kursk. Its rolled steel is used in ships, submarines, combat vehicle hulls, missiles, and aircraft.
Russia also conducted one of its largest drone swarms of the war against Ukraine.
At least 11 people were killed when Russia launched a combined strike using an Iskander ballistic missile, Tornado multiple launch rockets, and Geran
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