Even a legal victory may not be insufficient to restore the U.S. refugee system to its former state.
Jaya Ramji-Nogales of Temple University explained to Al Jazeera that even if legal challenges succeed, the Trump administration could still employ numerous strategies to severely undermine the program’s effectiveness. “If they can’t completely halt it, they can significantly reduce the numbers and inflict lasting damage on the program’s ability to function moving forward,” she said.
The Refugee Act of 1980 established an annual process for the president to set admission ceilings, determining the maximum number of refugees allowed into the U.S. each year. Since 1990, refugee admissions have averaged around 65,000 annually. However, the 1980 legislation does not establish a minimum number of refugees that must be admitted.
The highest admission ceiling was set by former President Jimmy Carter, who allowed over 230,000 refugees. In stark contrast, during his presidency, Donald Trump set a historic low by capping admissions at 18,000 for fiscal year 2020. For 2021, the final year of his first term, he proposed an even lower cap of 15,000.
According to Opila, a lawyer with the American Immigration Council, it remains unclear how far Trump could legally go in minimizing the refugee program during a potential second term. “There isn’t a ton of case law about the sort of boundaries the president might face,” Opila noted.
Interestingly, the Trump administration has indicated a willingness to prioritize one specific group in refugee admissions: white Afrikaners from South Africa. In a February executive order, Trump stated that the U.S. “shall promote the resettlement of Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation.” However, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has dismissed these claims of anti-white discrimination as false.
The broader impact of these changes remains uncertain, according to Ramji-Nogales. She pointed out that the refugee program has historically enjoyed bipartisan support, aligning with religious interests and efforts to bolster U.S. “soft power” abroad. This support persisted even during periods when public sentiment toward refugees soured in recent decades.
However, during his second term, Trump has encountered little resistance from his own Republican Party. “What happens next depends on the outcomes of the midterm elections and the next presidential election,” Ramji-Nogales said. “But I think the long-term consequences for both the United States and the rest of the world will be unfortunate, to say the least.”
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