Iran’s Strategic Focus on Gold Amid Trump-Era Uncertainties | Business and Economy News

Tehran, Iran – Iran has been importing tons of gold in recent months as it prepares for further challenges under the United States’ “maximum pressure” policy.

For over a decade, Iran has increasingly turned to gold as a safe-haven investment amid relentless economic storms worsened by sanctions targeting its nuclear program and regional influence.

However, the government of President Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed office after last summer’s election following the helicopter crash death of his predecessor, has taken this trend to new heights in response to pressure from US President Donald Trump.

By January 19, the end of Dey, the 10th month of the Iranian calendar year, Iran had imported at least 81 metric tons of gold bullion, according to the country’s customs administration.

This represented a more than 300 percent increase in value and a 234 percent rise in weight compared to the same period the previous year.

In late February, new customs chief Foroud Asgari told reporters that gold imports earned through exporting goods had surpassed 100 tons, without providing further details.

This suggests a more than threefold increase compared to the 30-ton total of the previous year.

Central bank chief Mohammad Reza Farzin claimed in December that 20 percent of the country’s foreign currency reserves had been converted into gold, giving Iran one of the highest ratios of gold to foreign exchange in the world.

Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi, head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, stated last month that the country’s trade balance is once again negative this year, attributing much of this to the surge in gold imports.

Iranian authorities have not disclosed the sources of the imported gold or what was exported in exchange.

Some reports suggest Iran acquired part of the gold from Russia in exchange for suicide drones. Iranian officials have neither confirmed nor denied this, maintaining that drone exports to Russia occurred months before the Ukraine war began.

Gold everywhere

The focus on gold is not limited to the Iranian government, which has also been struggling to fill budget gaps by significantly raising taxes.

Iranians have long been hedging against their plummeting national currency by purchasing foreign currencies and various gold products, especially coins minted by the central bank.

Authorities have also strongly encouraged gold purchases in recent months.

Numerous services and applications have emerged, with large public advertising campaigns promoting the ability to convert savings into gold for as little as $1 or less.

However, not all of these offerings have proven gold reserves, prompting authorities to periodically warn citizens to purchase only from certified vendors to avoid scams.

Superstition has also played a role, with thousands queuing outside gold stores last August to buy gold on the 13th day of the Islamic month of Safar, believing it would bring good fortune.

Those who bought gold this year are now seeing significant returns, as the value of gold—driven by global demand and local instability—has risen far above Iran’s 35 percent inflation rate.

The central bank has also been holding a series of new gold coin pre-sales, with delivery periods of up to six months. Some of these coins have been sold at prices higher than their intrinsic global value.

The central bank planned to issue new gold certificates before the end of the current Iranian calendar year on March 20 but postponed the launch to next year.

The monetary regulator has not disclosed the conditions for issuing the state-backed certificates, only stating that the delay was due to “economic conditions at the end of the year and the stock market.”

TEDPIX, the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange, hit record highs in January but has since experienced extreme volatility amid threats from the US and Israel to bomb Iran and worsening economic conditions.

What’s behind the gold rush?

After Iran was cut off from the global payment network and faced severe restrictions on access to foreign currencies, authorities increasingly favored gold as a way to reduce dependence on the US dollar and hold assets with intrinsic value for trade.

Iran is believed to have flown in much of its imported gold through Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport to minimize logistical challenges associated with transporting large volumes.

The government is also working to expand local gold production in the coming years, as current domestic mining and exploration efforts remain modest due to lackluster investments.

While the gold strategy may yield short-term gains for an economy under immense pressure, it has significant limitations in curbing runaway prices.

Economist and market analyst Mehdi Haghbaali told Al Jazeera that the central bank’s gold coin sales to the public are unlikely to be effective.

He explained that excessive money supply growth—a key driver of Iran’s perennial inflation—cannot fully explain the recent devaluation of the national currency, which is closely tied to geopolitical turmoil.

“By selling gold coins, the central bank is supposedly trying to signal confidence and its vast foreign asset reserves—whether in foreign exchange or gold,” he said.

“But even if this is the case, the auctions will be futile. The central bank and the government’s cards are known to the public, and the enormous fiscal deficit and upcoming trade difficulties under the new US administration are well understood by market players. As a result, no matter how much gold the central bank sells, it won’t change public perceptions, rendering the effort nearly ineffective in influencing prices.”

Haghbaali argued that only improved macroeconomic and political conditions could meaningfully impact prices, making the gold sales “almost a waste of energy and resources.”

Missing gold?

The massive quantities of imported gold and the opacity surrounding it under sanctions have fueled accusations of misconduct.

Independent Iranian investigative journalist Yashar Soltani made headlines last week after claiming that more than 61 tons of gold were “missing” and had not entered the market.

He also noted that gold coins are being sold at inflated prices, reinforcing long-standing accusations by local politicians and economists that successive governments manipulate rates for short-term gains.

The central bank issued a brief statement rejecting the claims without elaboration, stating only that it would pursue legal action against the journalist through the judiciary.

State media has rushed to defend the authorities’ gold strategy, with government-run IRNA arguing that selling parts of the central bank’s gold reserves provides quick liquidity under sanctions.