Report: Over 1,200 Objects Collided with Earth in 2024, Sparking Kessler Syndrome Concerns

Earth’s space age is under threat due to the overcrowding of orbits where satellites and spacecraft perform crucial communication and navigation functions, according to a space safety report by the European Space Agency (ESA). The number and scale of commercial satellite constellations in certain Low-Earth Orbits (LEO) are increasing every year, while intact satellites or rocket bodies are now re-entering Earth’s atmosphere on average “more than three times a day.”

“Combined with increasing launch traffic and high levels of solar activity, the number and size of re-entering objects are also rising, with 1,200 intact objects re-entering in 2024,” the report highlighted.

It added that there are more than 1.2 million objects larger than 1 cm in size capable of damaging existing satellites and the International Space Station (ISS) floating in orbit.

The situation is so precarious that even if spaceflight operations were to cease completely today, the amount of space debris in Low Earth Orbit would continue to increase as “fragmentation events add new debris objects faster than debris can naturally re-enter the atmosphere.”

The accelerated accumulation of space debris has already raised the real possibility of a “collision cascading” effect known as the Kessler Syndrome—a hypothetical scenario proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978.

Kessler Syndrome predicts that when the density of objects in Low Earth Orbit—roughly 100-1,200 miles above our planet—reaches a critical level, it could trigger a chain reaction of collisions, rendering the orbit unfit for human use and halting the space age.

Most satellites are placed in this orbit, which is now considered the world’s largest garbage dump. According to NASA, there are nearly 6,000 tons of materials in orbit, a number that will only increase with the rise of private space companies.

“To prevent this runaway chain reaction, known as Kessler Syndrome, from escalating and making certain orbits unusable, active debris removal is required,” the report added.

Also Read | What Is Kessler Syndrome And Why It Has Scientists Worried For Future Of Space

Debris Crashes

In December last year, the Kenya Space Agency (KSA) reported that fragments of metal, belonging to a rocket weighing nearly 500 kg, crashed into Mukuku village in Makueni County in the country’s northern region.

Similarly, last month, a portion of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket made an “uncontrolled re-entry into the atmosphere” over Poland and crash-landed on a man’s lawn, according to the Polish space agency.

Measuring about 1.5 meters by 1 meter wide, the debris was from a SpaceX rocket launched from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on February 1, carrying a payload of Starlink satellites.