Kyiv, Ukraine – When it comes to Ukraine, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin share a common sentiment: a deep dislike for Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both the U.S. and Russian leaders desire the removal of the Ukrainian president.
Trump stated on February 19, “We have a situation where elections haven’t been held in Ukraine, where martial law is in place, and where the leader in Ukraine, I hate to say it, has a four percent approval rating.” Five days later, Putin echoed this claim, saying, “It doesn’t matter whether it’s four percent or something else. What’s important is that his rating, according to our data, is exactly half that of his potential political rival.” Putin was referring to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former top general, whom Zelenskyy dismissed last year.
However, Trump and Putin were mistaken about Zelenskyy’s ratings. According to polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Zelenskyy’s diplomatic clashes with Trump have actually boosted his domestic popularity, rising from 52 percent in December to 57 percent in February. Still, 37 percent of Ukrainians do not trust him.
Critics have accused Zelenskyy of suppressing free speech, failing to curb corruption within his Servant of the People party and the military, and for firing Zaluzhnyi in February 2024. Putin was correct in identifying Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, as the only public figure capable of defeating Zelenskyy in polls. The popular general has a 62 percent approval rating but has consistently stated he will not run for president during the war.
Zaluzhnyi’s public relations strategy mirrors Zelenskyy’s approach before his 2019 presidential victory, keeping potential voters guessing by rarely giving interviews and maintaining minimal social media activity. He once criticized Trump during a speech at London’s Chatham House, accusing his administration of “destroying the world order” and “doubting the unity of the Western world.” Despite his popularity, Zaluzhnyi has made it clear he is not challenging Zelenskyy at this time.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team has reportedly approached Zelenskyy’s political rivals, including veteran politician Yulia Tymoshenko, who currently has a trust rating of just 10.6 percent. Zelenskyy’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, is slightly more popular, with 17 percent trust among Ukrainians. Poroshenko confirmed that Trump’s aides approached him but denied discussions about a snap election, stating that elections can only occur after a ceasefire and peace deal.
Ukrainian law prohibits elections during martial law, and conducting them during the war is logistically impossible. To hold elections, Ukraine would need to demobilize approximately 700,000 servicemen, allow them to vote, and enable them to register as candidates. This is nearly unfeasible given ongoing Russian aggression along the 1,200km front line.
Despite minimal territorial gains in March, Russian forces continue to pose a significant threat, shelling Ukrainian cities almost daily. This makes organizing elections in traditional polling locations like schools or administrative buildings highly dangerous. Additionally, Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of international election monitors.
If a ceasefire is achieved, a presidential vote could occur 90 days after martial law is lifted. However, a census would be necessary to accurately reflect the voter base. Ukraine’s population has drastically changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, with millions fleeing abroad, internally displaced, or residing in Russian-occupied territories. Ukrainian officials warn that those in Russia or Belarus face severe penalties for attempting to vote.
Paper ballots from refugees abroad would overwhelm Ukrainian embassies, and while over 20 million Ukrainians use the Diia app for government services, technical issues during previous voting attempts raise concerns about its reliability for elections.
The Economist recently reported that Kyiv is preparing for an election and that Zelenskyy hopes to win, citing anonymous government sources. However, the head of the ruling Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia, dismissed this claim, stating that all parliamentary parties agreed elections would occur six months after martial law is lifted.
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