On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire with Russia following critical peace talks with the United States in Saudi Arabia. In response, Washington has lifted its suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
After eight hours of negotiations in the port city of Jeddah, the terms of the peace agreement were jointly signed and will be presented to Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represented Washington in Saudi Arabia, stated that the ball is now in Moscow’s court. This development comes as Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fourth year and amid repeated statements from US President Donald Trump that ending the conflict is one of his top geopolitical priorities.
What is the ceasefire deal about?
The ceasefire agreement was reached after a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine was represented by Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office; Andrii Sybiha, the minister of foreign affairs; Rustem Umerov, the minister of defence; and Pavlo Palisa, a colonel in Zelenskyy’s office. The US delegation included Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
Following the talks, the US and Ukraine issued a joint statement, agreeing to an “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties.” Zelenskyy added on X (formerly Twitter) that the ceasefire will apply to missile, drone, and bomb attacks “not only in the Black Sea but also along the entire front line.”
The statement emphasized that the ceasefire is contingent on Russia’s agreement, highlighting the unusual nature of the deal. Typically, ceasefire agreements are negotiated directly between warring parties, not between one party and a mediator. The US pledged to communicate to Russia that “Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.”
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is awaiting a briefing from the US on the ceasefire proposal before commenting on whether it will accept the terms.
What does Ukraine gain from agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire?
The joint statement confirmed that the US will immediately resume intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine. These had been paused after a tense meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House on February 28.
Additionally, the two presidents agreed to finalize a deal on Ukraine’s critical minerals “as soon as possible.” This agreement, which has been under discussion for weeks, would allow the US to invest in Ukraine’s mineral resources. Although the deal was expected to be signed during Zelenskyy’s recent White House visit, it was postponed.
The statement did not explicitly mention security guarantees for Kyiv, something Zelenskyy has been seeking. Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of the US offering such guarantees, arguing that US investment in Ukraine through the minerals deal would serve as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment in a Fox News interview, stating that economic investment in Ukraine would provide “the very best security guarantee.”
What did Ukraine propose at the meeting?
Zelenskyy described the talks in Saudi Arabia as constructive. During the meeting, Ukraine proposed three key points:
- A cessation of missile, bomb, and long-range drone attacks (“silence in the skies”).
- A halt to naval hostilities (“silence at sea”).
- The release of civilian and military prisoners of war, as well as Ukrainian children forcibly sent to Russia.
Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv was ready to accept the proposal, adding that the ceasefire would take effect immediately if Russia agreed. Rubio also expressed optimism, saying, “We are one step closer to restoring durable peace for Ukraine. The ball is now in Russia’s court.”
How significant is the resumption of US aid and intelligence?
The suspension of US military and intelligence support had severely impacted Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, noted that Ukraine had no choice but to accept the ceasefire deal due to the critical nature of US assistance.
Before the war began in February 2022, the US provided substantial intelligence to Ukraine, helping it prepare for Russian attacks and target logistical centers. On March 5, US officials confirmed the suspension of this support, which Ukrainian commanders on the front lines described as essential. Without US military aid, analysts warned that Ukraine’s forces could lose combat effectiveness within two to four months, potentially leading to a Russian breakthrough.
Will Russia accept a ceasefire?
Russia has yet to respond to the ceasefire proposal. Giles suggested that it would be “strange and out of character” for Russia to agree without presenting additional demands. He speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin might push for sanctions relief or permanent restrictions on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Since the war began, the US and its allies have imposed over 21,692 sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, media, the military, energy, aviation, and other sectors. Trump, however, stated on March 7 that he was “strongly considering” imposing further sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has not ruled out contacts with US representatives in the coming days. Trump’s Middle East Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly planning to meet with Putin in Moscow, marking his second high-level visit to Russia since the war began. Waltz, the national security adviser, also indicated that he would speak with his Russian counterpart soon.
Conclusion
The ceasefire agreement represents a potential step toward de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine. However, its success hinges on Russia’s willingness to accept the terms. While Ukraine has secured the resumption of critical US aid, the absence of explicit security guarantees and the possibility of Russian counter-demands leave the path to peace uncertain.
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